The Chinese government has been rather tense lately. Three issues in particular worry China’s top leaders.
First, the 17th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is scheduled to meet in mid-October. Currently the Party is busily making last arrangements for the all-important event. The most critical issue is the membership of the Standing Committee of the Politburo. It is widely believed that about half of the eight current members on the said committee will retire, to be replaced by younger leaders. As important an issue is who the Party will choose to succeed General Secretary Hu Jintao five years from now. If history is any guidance, the Party will promote a particularly young official to the Standing Committee of the Politburo so that the future boss of China can gain experience and ready himself for the big challenge. As all this going on, rumors and speculations abound. Naturally, the Party tries to keep everything under cover to avoid any additional trouble.
Secondly, there is the old headache that is Taiwan. Mr. Chen Shui-bian, the president of the Taiwan-based Republic of China, will step down early next year. With a strong desire to continue to play an important role in Taiwanese politics after his retirement from the presidential office, and to help himself deal with the corruption charges that he’ll face once his presidential privileges run out, Mr. Chen has tried to establish his position in history by making renewed efforts to assert the independent status of Taiwan. His bet is that given Beijing will host the 2008 Olympic Games, the government on the mainland does not do anything that will offend the international community. This is good thinking from Chen’s point of view. But Taiwan is an issue of such strategic importance, Beijing surely will not sit idly while Taiwan marches down the road of independence. A hard choice must be made, sooner or later.
Thirdly, the recent popular protests in Myanmar has brought back to the Chinese the painful memory of the 1989 Tian’anmen Square crackdown. The prominent role played by Buddhist monks in the demonstrations in Myanmar has further heightened the Chinese government’s concern, which has struggling with a similar problem, although not as visible, for some time now. The government has learned valuable lessons from the past and does not want to leave anything to chances when it comes to political stability in China.
Who wants to be an emperor? It’s no fun to be the ruler of the world’s most populous country.